Nej's Natterings

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Barmy weather

Well, it looks like the doom-mongers were right.

Last year, the average temperature rose in Britain to it's highest level in over 350 years.

But, let's examine the facts, rather than the hysteria for a moment. The average temperature rose from 10.63C to 10.84C. Yes, that's right. A huge rise of 0.21C. A fifth of a degree. This was reported as "smashing the previous record". Hardly "smashing", is it?

Now that is certainly an increase. But the highest in the last 350 years? Just how accurate were those temperatures recorded 350 years ago? And how accurate the records? I somehow doubt that they were as accurate as those recorded today, which means that in terms of data validation, they are illegal entries and must be discarded.

Now, it is true that the ten hottest years on record have occured in the past 12 years. Irrefutable proof of global warming? Well, no. If the past 12 years had been the 12 hottest years then yes, but 2 of those years do not feature in the top 10. This proves that the temperature has been going down, as well as up. The overall trend may be slowly upwards, but it is not a linear increase. Sometimes it'll go the other way, too.

What it actually proves is that we have no effect, or minimal effect, on the temperature of the earth. If within the last twelve years the temperature can go down, even though our CO2 emissions are increasing, doesn't this prove that C02 emissions - and all other activities - are nothing to do with it? Why yes it does.

Of course the temperature varies a bit (or a lot, depending on which raving newspaper you read). Varying by a fifth of a degree is frankly nothing. Look back 10,000 years to the last ice age. I bet it was a hell of a lot colder than a fifth of a degree less than today, then. And yet, without the invention of the aeroplane and the 4x4, it warmed up all by itself.

The earth has been heating and cooling since the dawn of time. And let's not forget the sun (the fiery ball of hydrogen gas, not the newspaper similarly full of hot air) has it's hotter and colder years, and varies it's sunspots and so on.

I'm sure the earth actually is on a slightly warming trend at the moment, though. I'm also sure that it's nothing to do with us. I'm further sure that it'll cool again, and there probably will be another ice age at some point in the future. I'm most certainly sure that there is NOTHING we can do about it. Cutting carbon emissions, raising taxes for green initiatives and so on only pander to the political parties and celebrities who want to cash in on public mis-information for their own greed.

Rather than these ridiculous schemes, we should accept the fact that it is going to happen and plan accordingly. Raise the Thames flood defences so they can cope with another 10 feet of water. Build up sea-defences, move housing back from the edges and out of flood plains. Just don't predict these catastrophic events with no plans to fight them, other than a £25 congestion charging zone. Take some proper action for crying out loud. All that's going to happen is London will start to get flooded and it'll be too late to do anything about it, because everyone thought that putting 5p on a litre of fuel would save the planet.

They're all so busy pointing the finger of blame that no proper action is getting taken.

If the sea levels rise it'll be the fault of politicians and greenies, not BP or Shell.

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